The dual role of institutions and regulation in shaping agricultural innovation in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the distinct effects of institutional regulation and broader institutional quality on agricultural innovation across 48 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over 2000–2021, with attention to structural heterogeneity and coevolutionary dynamics. We employ a triangulated empirical strategy combining within-country Fixed Effects (FE), System GMM, and PLS-SEM. Agricultural innovation is measured through a custom six-component WIPO/GII composite index. Governance is decomposed into a regulatory dimension (Rule of Law and Regulatory Quality: Regulation index) and a broader institutional quality dimension (Voice, Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, and Corruption Control: Qualityinstit index). FE finds no significant short-run within-country effect, consistent with near-unit-root innovation persistence (ρ = 0.981) and known institutional adjustment lags. System GMM identifies a positive long-run structural effect (β = 0.029, p > 0.10 aggregate; significant when governance dimensions are tested via regional sub-samples). Regional decomposition uncovers a governance transition pathway: institutional regulation drives innovation exclusively in Southern Africa (β = 0.775, p = 0.041), while broader institutional quality is the binding constraint in Central Africa (β = 0.548, p = 0.011). PLS-SEM confirms bidirectional coevolution (β = 0.604, p < 0.001 in both directions). Universal innovation decline across SSA (2000–2021) is five times larger in less rural economies (− 2.95 SD) than in highly rural ones (− 0.57 SD). Context-sensitive institutional policies must account for sub-regional governance trajectories. Countries at early institutional stages should prioritize political stability and government effectiveness before investing in regulatory reforms; more advanced economies can leverage regulatory quality for direct innovation returns. The bidirectional relationship implies that innovation investments can themselves strengthen institutional quality, opening a virtuous cycle that current policies overlook.