Greater sage‐grouse dynamics are influenced by winter temperature rather than indices of grazing, drought, and breeding season weather in a northern Great Plains population

Abstract High climatic variability and livestock grazing are ubiquitous across greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianis ) range and may influence the population dynamics of this imperiled rangeland species. We examined how annual variability in climate, vegetation productivity, grazing intensity, and conservation grazing program enrollment influenced a greater sage‐grouse population in a 1500‐km 2 rangeland landscape in central Montana (2002–2022). Using a Gompertz density‐dependent population model, we found that winter temperatures positively influenced annual population dynamics (standardized coefficient = 0.18; 95% CRI: 0.02–0.34). We found no clear evidence that annual dynamics were influenced by variation in the previous year's breeding season weather, drought indices, or remotely sensed rangeland productivity, unlike findings documented in other parts of sage‐grouse range (e.g., Great Basin). We found no compelling evidence that landscape‐scale variation in grazing intensity or percent area enrolled in 3‐year conservation grazing program contracts affected populations. Our results suggest that, in a relatively intact rangeland of the northern Great Plains, drought sensitivity and prevailing grazing management did not limit populations. Strategies to protect or expand intact rangelands including those that encompass winter habitat should be evaluated further.