The Effect of Economic Growth Target Pressure on the Urban–Rural Income Gap in China: The Mediating Role of Urban Spatial Structure

The urban–rural income gap remains a central issue in the income distribution of developing countries, constraining regional coordination and social equity. Although stable economic development is essential for narrowing this gap, the distributional consequences of local economic growth management have received insufficient attention, especially from the perspective of urban spatial structure. Drawing on the urban bias theory and spatial economics, this study uses panel data from 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta region of China during 2007–2023 and applies a two-way fixed effects model to examine the effect of economic growth target pressure on the urban–rural income gap and the mediating role of urban spatial structure. The results show that economic growth target pressure significantly widens the urban–rural income gap, with an estimated increase of approximately 0.001–0.002 units in the Theil index. Mediation analysis further indicates that target pressure promotes a more monocentric urban spatial structure, which partially mediates the effect. The results also show evident temporal and regional heterogeneity. These findings suggest that growth-oriented local governance may reshape income distribution through spatial organization, offering empirical evidence for optimizing local economic management and urban spatial structure to promote coordinated urban–rural development.