A Three-Stage Calibration Pipeline for IMERG V07 Targeting Extreme-Intensity Bias: Application to Rainfall Erosivity Estimation over the Volga Region (2001–2024)

Spaceborne precipitation products such as NASA IMERG V07 provide sub-hourly data required for hydrological modelling, but systematic biases in wet-event frequency and extreme-intensity representation limit their reliability for applications sensitive to precipitation extremes. This study develops a three-stage calibration pipeline combining probability-of-precipitation frequency adaptation, empirical quantile mapping of the distribution body, and Generalised Pareto Distribution tail modelling with constrained blending. The approach is calibrated against 202 Roshydromet stations using 3-hourly observations and evaluated on 15 spatially independent stations over a 9-year validation period. At the station-optimal blending weight, the proposed pipeline reduces median absolute percentage bias at the P99 quantile from 43.9% to 10.2%, while maintaining comparable volume balance (|PBIAS| 6.5%). To suppress a disaggregation artefact arising from amplification of multi-hour accumulations, the operational gridded R-factor product instead adopts a more conservative blend (|PBIAS@P99| = 24.9%) together with an empirically constrained accumulation cap, although the absence of sub-hourly calibration data remains the principal limitation. The calibrated dataset is applied to derive a 24-year (2001–2024) rainfall erosivity climatology for the Volga region, yielding a domain-mean R-factor of 254 ± 55 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 with no detectable monotonic trend. The proposed framework improves the representation of precipitation extremes and provides a transferable preprocessing approach for hydrological modelling applications.

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Publication Details

Journal
Hydrology
Published
2026-06-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13060151
Primary Topic
Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

A Three-Stage Calibration Pipeline for IMERG V07 Targeting Extreme-Intensity Bias: Application to Rainfall Erosivity Estimation over the Volga Region (2001–2024)

Artur Gafurov
Hydrology
Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
article

A Three-Stage Calibration Pipeline for IMERG V07 Targeting Extreme-Intensity Bias: Application to Rainfall Erosivity Estimation over the Volga Region (2001–2024)

Artur Gafurov
article en

Abstract

Spaceborne precipitation products such as NASA IMERG V07 provide sub-hourly data required for hydrological modelling, but systematic biases in wet-event frequency and extreme-intensity representation limit their reliability for applications sensitive to precipitation extremes. This study develops a three-stage calibration pipeline combining probability-of-precipitation frequency adaptation, empirical quantile mapping of the distribution body, and Generalised Pareto Distribution tail modelling with constrained blending. The approach is calibrated against 202 Roshydromet stations using 3-hourly observations and evaluated on 15 spatially independent stations over a 9-year validation period. At the station-optimal blending weight, the proposed pipeline reduces median absolute percentage bias at the P99 quantile from 43.9% to 10.2%, while maintaining comparable volume balance (|PBIAS| 6.5%). To suppress a disaggregation artefact arising from amplification of multi-hour accumulations, the operational gridded R-factor product instead adopts a more conservative blend (|PBIAS@P99| = 24.9%) together with an empirically constrained accumulation cap, although the absence of sub-hourly calibration data remains the principal limitation. The calibrated dataset is applied to derive a 24-year (2001–2024) rainfall erosivity climatology for the Volga region, yielding a domain-mean R-factor of 254 ± 55 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 with no detectable monotonic trend. The proposed framework improves the representation of precipitation extremes and provides a transferable preprocessing approach for hydrological modelling applications.

HydrologyVol. 13(6)
Kazan Federal University (RU)
Russian Science Foundation
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
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