The economic burden of depression disease for China, India and the USA in 2025–2050: a health-augmented macroeconomic modelling study

BACKGROUND: Depression is an increasingly severe public health challenge worldwide, causing substantial health losses and profoundly impacting national economies. As China, India and the USA bear the largest share of the global depression burden and have different developmental and demographic profiles, quantifying the condition's long-term macroeconomic effects in these countries is crucial for gaining insight into the relationship between mental health and economic development worldwide. METHODS: We used a health-augmented macroeconomic model to assess the macroeconomic impact of depression, comparing the difference in gross domestic product (GDP) between a status quo scenario and a counterfactual scenario in which depression was assumed to be completely eliminated between 2025 and 2050. The model incorporated human and physical capital channels, capturing productivity losses, reduced labour supply and declines in household savings caused by medical expenditures. Data were drawn from multiple publicly available sources, including literature, the Global Burden of Disease Study and the World Bank. RESULTS: From 2025 to 2050, the cumulative macroeconomic burden of depression is projected to reach INT $3,340 billion across the three countries. The USA is expected to bear the largest total and per capita losses, at INT $1,416 billion and INT $4,110 per person respectively. India would follow with INT $1,100 billion and INT $762 per person, while China would account for INT $873 billion and INT $615 per person. CONCLUSIONS: Across different economic models, depression has a significant and sustained negative impact on long-term macroeconomic development. Policymakers should take prompt action to implement effective prevention and management strategies to curb the growing health and economic impacts of depression.