Assessing future invasion risk by Solanum viarum Dunal in Northwestern Himalaya to inform early detection and management

Understanding the potential distribution patterns of invasive species under changing climatic conditions is important for biodiversity conservation and ecological risk assessment. The present study aims to predict the current and future distribution of Solanum viarum Dunal in Jammu and Kashmir, India, using species distribution modelling approach. The MaxEnt model demonstrated excellent performance, with an Area under Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistics (TSS) and Boyce Index values of 0.96, 0.77 and 0.84, respectively, indicating high predictive accuracy. Mean annual air temperature (Bio1) emerged as the most influential variable, contributing 55% to the predicted distribution of S. viarum. Under current climatic conditions, 12.38% and 1.39% of the area fall under medium and high suitability classes, respectively, across the Jammu region, whereas most of the Kashmir Valley falls within low suitability zones. Future climate projections indicate a notable increase in the potential distribution of S. viarum with a varied extent of suitable habitat under different future climatic scenarios. Under the SSP245 scenario, the species is projected to experience a range change of 29.03% by 2050, increasing to 160.84% by 2070. Under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable area is predicted to undergo range expansion of 131.89% and 58.99% by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Furthermore, expansion of medium and high suitability areas within protected areas is projected under both climatic scenarios, with a more pronounced increase under SSP245 by 2070 (~ 169%). The projected expansion of S. viarum highlights the need for proactive management planning. Integrating model outputs with local ecological knowledge, land-use information, and systematic monitoring is likely to enhance the effectiveness of management interventions. The findings of the study provide a strong scientific basis for developing early detection and rapid response strategies to limit the further spread of S. viarum and maintain conservation priorities.