Transformative resilience under geopolitical precarity: Uzbekistan’s regional strategy after 2016

Uzbekistan’s post-2016 foreign and domestic policy trajectory offers a revealing case of how states facing acute geopolitical precarity convert vulnerability into strategic agency. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and amid China’s expanding institutional and economic presence in Central Asia, Uzbekistan has been exposed to growing external pressure that might ordinarily lead to authoritarian consolidation or democratic backsliding. Yet the country has continued a cautious programme of institutional reform while simultaneously intensifying regional cooperation with its Central Asian neighbours. This article argues that Uzbekistan has managed these pressures through what Azmanova and Korosteleva [Citation2026. The precarisation of politics in times of war and crisis: from paralysis to transformative resilience. Contemporary Security Policy] describe as transformative resilience—a form of political agency that moves beyond merely withstanding crisis and instead enables forward-oriented institutional adaptation. In practice, this resilience has taken the form of what we describe as sovereign regionalism, a strategy that combines gradual political opening at home with intensified regional cooperation abroad. Through border settlements, water diplomacy, and expanding regional economic integration, Uzbekistan has sought to reduce external vulnerability while preserving domestic reform momentum. The Uzbek case demonstrates how regional cooperation can function as a form of security infrastructure that sustains governance capacity under conditions of geopolitical precarity. Rather than retreating into authoritarian retrenchment, the state has pursued a dual logic of diplomatic accommodation and structural diversification that preserves room for institutional reform. The article concludes by outlining implications for understanding democratic resilience and regional security strategies in geopolitically exposed regions.