Future Sea Level Rise Impacts on Sandy Beaches Under Contrasting Tidal Regimes: The Role of Wave Run-Up in Southern Spain

Sea level rise poses a major threat to dry beach areas, particularly in low-lying and managed coastal environments. Reliable assessments of future beach vulnerability therefore require the combined consideration of sea level rise, tidal regime, meteorological forcing, and wave-driven processes. Here, a physically based methodology is applied to evaluate future inundation and beach response at five representative sandy beaches along the southern coast of Spain. The selected sites span mesotidal Atlantic and microtidal Mediterranean settings. The approach integrates present-day conditions with sea level rise projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, astronomical tide, and meteorological residuals. Wave run-up is estimated using the IH2VOF CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model. Extreme still water levels and maximum inundation levels are derived for mid-century (2026–2045) and end-of-century (2081–2100) periods, and their impacts on available dry beach surface and beach width are quantified using cross-shore profiles. Results indicate a progressive reduction in dry beach surface and width across all sites, with impacts intensifying from mid- to end-century and from moderate to high-emission scenarios. While losses remain comparatively moderate under still-water assumptions, the inclusion of wave effects leads to substantially larger impacts. At the most vulnerable sites, dry beach surface losses reach up to 80% under still-water conditions, and up to complete loss (100%) when wave run-up is included, particularly along the mesotidal Atlantic coast. Overall, the results demonstrate that neglecting wave run-up can lead to a substantial underrepresentation of future beach inundation, and that its explicit inclusion provides a more reliable basis for beach management and adaptation planning under sea level rise.