A Multi-Source Relational Data Framework for Very Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using Wavelet-Coupled Deep Learning

Accurate photovoltaic power forecasting is essential for the reliable integration of solar energy into the electrical grid. This work presents a high-resolution dataset and acquisition framework that integrates electrical measurements, environmental variables, and solar position data into a unified relational database, suitable for PV power prediction across all temporal horizons. Using this dataset, we focus on very-short-term forecasting and propose a comprehensive forecasting framework that combines wavelet-based feature extraction with advanced deep learning techniques. The framework is evaluated across forecasting horizons from 5 to 30 min, achieving nMAE values between 0.73% and 4.64%, nRMSE between 1.65% and 7.98%, and PICP ranging from 62.4% to 74.7%. Robustness is assessed by simulating realistic cloud-induced perturbations in the input data. A hybrid approach that combines the deep learning model with a gradient boosting regressor to correct residual errors reduces the overall nMAE from 4.72% to 3.89% and nRMSE from 9.52% to 6.83%, effectively mitigating large errors caused by abrupt power fluctuations. These results demonstrate the framework’s ability to provide accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts under both standard and perturbed conditions, offering a solid foundation for future PV prediction research and practical applications.

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Publication Details

Journal
Metrology
Published
2026-06-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/metrology6020038
Primary Topic
Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

A Multi-Source Relational Data Framework for Very Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using Wavelet-Coupled Deep Learning

Marco Faifer, Loredana Cristaldi, Luca Martiri, Andrea Moschetti
Metrology
Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
article

A Multi-Source Relational Data Framework for Very Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using Wavelet-Coupled Deep Learning

Marco Faifer, Loredana Cristaldi, Luca Martiri, Andrea Moschetti
article en

Abstract

Accurate photovoltaic power forecasting is essential for the reliable integration of solar energy into the electrical grid. This work presents a high-resolution dataset and acquisition framework that integrates electrical measurements, environmental variables, and solar position data into a unified relational database, suitable for PV power prediction across all temporal horizons. Using this dataset, we focus on very-short-term forecasting and propose a comprehensive forecasting framework that combines wavelet-based feature extraction with advanced deep learning techniques. The framework is evaluated across forecasting horizons from 5 to 30 min, achieving nMAE values between 0.73% and 4.64%, nRMSE between 1.65% and 7.98%, and PICP ranging from 62.4% to 74.7%. Robustness is assessed by simulating realistic cloud-induced perturbations in the input data. A hybrid approach that combines the deep learning model with a gradient boosting regressor to correct residual errors reduces the overall nMAE from 4.72% to 3.89% and nRMSE from 9.52% to 6.83%, effectively mitigating large errors caused by abrupt power fluctuations. These results demonstrate the framework’s ability to provide accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts under both standard and perturbed conditions, offering a solid foundation for future PV prediction research and practical applications.

MetrologyVol. 6(2)
Politecnico di Milano (IT)
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
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