An Uncertainty‐Considering Civil Aircraft Operational Risk Assessment Approach Incorporating Bayesian Method and Evidence Theory

ABSTRACT In response to the insufficient failure data during the operational phase of civil aircraft, efforts are made to enhance the operational risk assessment and analysis. A quantitative safety assessment method is employed, considering uncertainty, thereby refining the evaluation of operational risk into a comprehensive evaluation‐decision analysis process. Operational risk assessment is conducted based on the Bow‐tie risk analysis model. Addressing the parameter uncertainty in the failure distribution of airborne components, Bayesian theory is utilized to adjust these parameters, obtaining the failure probability of critical events. Control events during aircraft operation are described using evidence theory, leveraging expert experience as evidence to delineate uncertainties in the Bow‐tie model. Bayesian decision‐making is employed to conduct safety decision analysis of risks. Considering a certain event of an aircraft type; this method facilitates the calculation of the failure probability of the critical event and Bayesian decision‐making processes. The results indicate that integrating Bayesian theory, evidence theory, and Bayesian decision‐making can help to improve the evaluation and decision analysis of operational risk in civil aviation.