Assessing climate change impacts on wildfire risk in central appalachian forests of the Eastern United States

Wildfire risk is increasing in the eastern U.S., yet spatial and climate-driven assessments remain limited. This study evaluates climate change impacts on wildfire risk in the Upper James Watershed (UJW) using baseline (2000-2019), near-future (2021-2040), and far-future (2061-2080) projections from a 12-model CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) ensemble under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. A wildfire risk model was developed in ArcGIS Pro using nine key factors and validated with MODIS hotspot data, showing good agreement between modeled risk patterns and observed fire occurrences (NOF = 0.21, RMSE = 4.20, MAE = 3.37). Baseline risk was primarily driven by land cover, fire-lookout visibility, annual precipitation, population density, and aspect. Baseline maps classified the UJW as very low (21%), low (60%), medium (18.77%), and high risk (0.23%), with high-risk zones concentrated in the southwestern and northeastern regions. Climate projections indicate increased precipitation (up to 8.78%) and rising temperatures (maximum 24.58%; minimum 92.11%), leading to a 519.75% expansion of high-risk areas and > 65% growth in medium-risk zones under SSP5-8.5 by the far-future period, particularly in autumn and spring, while winter risk declines across all scenarios. Jefferson National Forest shows moderate risk increases, whereas Moores Creek, Douthat, and Lake Robertson parks experience substantial growth, with Lake Robertson's risk doubling. This study fills a critical regional gap and supports climate-adaptive wildfire planning by enabling targeted risk prioritization, improved resource allocation, and enhanced long-term preparedness in vulnerable eastern U.S. landscapes.