Actor contestation in EU policymaking for plastic chemical recycling: towards prospective policy mix analysis

This study develops a prospective, actor-centered framework for early-stage policy mix analysis that combines actor-centered sources (stakeholder documents, responses to public consultations, and expert interviews) with institutional sources such as policy reports and legal texts. This framework is applied to the EU policy mix for chemical recycling (CR), an emerging and contested technology within the circular plastics transition. The analysis identifies four overarching strategies and five central instruments as the core elements of the policy mix. It maps the main conflict lines that constitute actor contestation by comparing patterns of core (strategy-level) and secondary (instrument-level) preferences. From these patterns, two competing actor-envisioned policy mix pathways are derived: one emphasizing regulatory alignment to accelerate CR deployment, and another advocating a more cautious approach based on regulatory safeguards. Finally, the study argues for a dedicated EU strategy for CR and outlines implications for transition scholars studying contested, early-stage policy mixes.