A meta‐analysis of bobcat survival across the United States

Abstract Bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) are an abundant and widely studied carnivore of ecological and management importance; however, factors like spatiotemporal variation in survival rates make it difficult to identify primary drivers of survival among studies. We used meta‐analysis techniques to synthesize bobcat survival rates across their geographic range and elucidate factors driving variation among estimates. We performed a literature search for annual bobcat survival rates that were estimated using radio‐collar data and obtained 19 of them across 16 states in the United States from 1983–2019. Using a mixed‐effects model where the effect size was a study's reported survival rate, we evaluated the effects of year, sample size, study length, and analysis type in a meta‐regression framework to examine whether these covariates could explain heterogeneity among survival rates. Additionally, we tested for potential spatial effects on survival rates (i.e., latitude, longitude, region, mean annual harvest, and harvest status), which could be driven by factors such as harvest interest, hunter effort, and pelt prices. Mean annual bobcat survival across studies was 0.75 (95% CI = 0.69–0.80). Study year explained 26.4% of heterogeneity ( P = 0.031) and indicated that survival rates increased from 1983–2019. Additionally, sample size explained 32.5% of heterogeneity ( P = 0.024) and indicated that survival rates increased with increasing sample sizes. Increasing survival rates through time may be attributed to conservation practices, improved monitoring of radio‐collared animals, or a combination of biological and methodological changes. More than half of the between‐study heterogeneity was explained by the population's exploitation level ( R 2 = 61.7%, P = 0.003) and suggested that nuance in site‐level harvest restrictions (e.g., permitted vs. restricted areas for harvest) influenced survival rates. We recommend evaluation of bobcat harvest policies and consistent inclusion of explicit details regarding harvest regulations (e.g., bag limits, number of tags issued, season length, proportion of land where harvest is permitted) to help clarify the link between harvest and survival in future studies.