ICGPS V3.3: Trigger-Magnitude Decoupling — The Gate Opens the Door; the Fault Decides the Size

This is a preprint of the manuscript: "ICGPS V3.3: Trigger-Magnitude Decoupling — The Gate Opens the Door; the Fault Decides the Size" Abstract:ICGPS V3.2 introduced a continuous gate hypothesis (M_max ≈ 6.0 + 0.4×Kp) relating geomagnetic storm intensity to maximum triggerable earthquake magnitude. Three months of real-time observation (March–June 2026) falsify this formulation. The decisive evidence includes Kp = 5.7 preceding the 2011 Tohoku M9.1, Kp = 8 preceding the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8, and Kp = 6 preceding only the 2026 Chile M6.9 (an intraslab event). There is no monotonic relationship between Kp and magnitude. V3.3 corrects this with a fundamental conceptual separation: geomagnetic and tidal forcing constitute a TRIGGER (whether a fault ruptures now), while the magnitude is determined entirely by the FAULT STATE (accumulated slip deficit, gap maturity). Kp is the key that opens the door; the fault decides what comes through. This resolves all apparent anomalies observed in the dataset. The paper also reports three months of correct null predictions during solar quiet (March–May 2026) and identifies the first genuine test opportunity: a potential maximum-risk convergence window of June 13–17, 2026, contingent on continued solar activity from active region AR4455. The manuscript updates the ICGPS framework (V3.0–V3.2, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18823232) and is currently under iterative development. Keywords: earthquake triggering, geomagnetic storm, Kp index, tidal triggering, fault maturity, slip deficit, ICGPS, trigger-magnitude decoupling, solar activity, seismic gap