A Method for Medium-to-Long-Term Global Seismic Activity Prediction for 2027-2031 and Beyond Based on the Encrypted Chain Fracture Model

This paper presents the application of the Encrypted Chain Fracture Model to medium-to-long-term seismic activity prediction. The core equations are recurrence interval T = S_crit/α and magnitude M = (2/3)·log₁₀(η·S_crit·L·W) − 6.0, where α is the encrypted chain stress accumulation rate, S_crit is the fracture threshold, and L and W are the length and width of the fault zone. Using global GPS observations, historical earthquake catalogs, and geological survey data to calibrate model parameters, this paper performs medium-to-long-term prediction of global seismic activity for 2027 to 2031 and beyond. The predicted regions are classified into three tiers based on the stress ratio R and the predicted time window t_window: the 2027-2028 risk window (t_window 1-3 years, R ≥ 0.90), the 2029-2031 risk window (t_window 3-5 years, R ≥ 0.85), and the post-2031 risk window (t_window > 5 years, R ≥ 0.55 and M ≥ 4.0). Each prediction includes the complete mathematical calculation process and error estimates. The reliability of the predictions in this paper will be evaluated based on the verification results of the Encrypted Chain Fracture Model's deterministic predictions for 2026: if the 2026 predictions pass validation, the predictions in this paper have relatively high credibility; if the 2026 predictions are falsified, the predictions in this paper will require re-examination.