Acceleration-Capacity Gap Model (ACGM): A Structural Framework for Civilizational Stability in the AI Era

The Acceleration-Capacity Gap Model (ACGM) provides a structural framework for understanding civilizational stability under conditions of rapid technological change. The model defines system stress using three fundamental variables: Acceleration Pressure (A) — the rate of technological deployment and systemic change; Regulation Capacity (R) — institutional governance effectiveness; and Social Buffer (S) — middle-class stability and social cohesion. The core relationship is defined as: Stress(t) = A(t) / (R(t) × S(t)) This structural lens captures the essential dynamic: stability requires that institutional adaptation capacity and social absorption capacity together outpace the rate of systemic change. The model predicts four distinct stability regimes — Stable, Tension, Early Instability, and Collapse — each with empirically observable proxies. The paper integrates ACGM directly with the SOE Simulation Program variables, mapping A→D (Disturbance), R→T (Trust), and S→W (Structural Weight). This integration allows ACGM stress to be operationalized within formal simulation parameters, creating a bidirectional bridge between qualitative institutional analysis and quantitative system dynamics. The model is grounded in real-world calibration using the United States as a test case, positioning the system in the Tension regime (medium regulation, medium-low social buffer, high acceleration). The paper is intentionally calibrated for falsifiability and identifies the core policy question: not whether to slow technological progress, but whether adaptation capacity can be increased at the same rate as acceleration.