Environmental Effects of Economic Uncertainty and Health Expenditures: Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach in Türkiye

This paper examines whether economic uncertainty (WUI) and health expenditures (HE) help explain changes in CO₂ emissions (CO₂) in Türkiye during 1990–2023. WUI is measured using the World Uncertainty Index for Türkiye, and the ARDL bounds testing approach is applied to identify both long-term equilibrium patterns and short-term adjustments. Economic growth and financial deepening are included as control variables. The estimates show that WUI does not produce a statistically detectable effect on CO₂, whereas HE is positively associated with emissions (0.3228). The error-correction coefficient (−0.2608) indicates that about 26% of short-run disequilibria disappear in each period. Overall, the findings suggest that environmental outcomes in Türkiye are shaped more strongly by real and sectoral dynamics than by uncertainty, highlighting the need to align health policies with environmental sustainability objectives.