Exploring the global, regional, and Chinese disease burden of acute glomerulonephritis from 1990 to 2021 and future trends up to 2039 based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database

PURPOSE: Acute glomerulonephritis (AGN) is a non-infectious inflammation of the glomeruli. Severe AGN can lead to acute renal failure, imposing substantial economic burdens on society. GBD database provided comprehensive data for analyzing global disease trends. Therefore, a thorough assessment of AGN-related burden is essential to inform mitigation strategies. METHODS: In this study, the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), their rates, and corresponding age-standardised rates (ASR) from 1990 to 2021 were systematically described. Trends in the disease burden of AGN across different age groups and genders were further analyzed at the global, regional, and Chinese levels. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model (APCM) was constructed to predict potential future trends. RESULTS: In 2021, the incidence, mortality, DALYs, and their corresponding rates of AGN diseases declined significantly globally compared to 1990, yet China maintained relatively high levels of these indicators. Age-stratified analysis showed that individuals aged 0-14 had substantially higher AGN disease burden rates than other age groups. Projections for 2022-2039 indicate rising AGN incidence and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), but decreasing mortality/age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALYs/age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). This study highlights the need for increased attention to AGN disease burden in children aged 0-14, China, and regions with medium SDI. CONCLUSION: This study systematically described the trends of AGN disease at the global, regional, and Chinese levels from 1990 to 2021 and predicted possible future trends. The findings provided valuable tools for assessing the disease burden of AGN.