Evaluation at a Democratic Inflection Point: Global Institutional Shifts, USAID's 2025 Reckoning, and Lessons for U.S. Evaluation Practice

ABSTRACT Evaluation is a foundational element of democratic governance and U.S. government global leadership, yet its role is increasingly contested as institutions experience political centralization, weakened capacity, and shifting global influence. This article argues that evaluation must continue being understood as democratic and transparent infrastructure whose erosion may further reshape OECD‐focused accountability, public value, and collective decision‐making and standard setting. Framed by the normative guidance of OECD and USAID transparency frameworks, and drawing on the 2023 USAID/RFS Global Leadership Evaluation alongside analyses of philanthropic expansion, the article fast‐forward to the 2025 USAID closure. Using examples from Kenya and Zimbabwe, it highlights how bilateral shifts are redefining partnership models with implications for evaluation practices. It concludes with lessons for U.S. evaluators navigating a world where public evidence systems are fragile, private actors shape epistemic authority, and democratic accountability requires rebuilding independent evaluative capacity.