Information and Communication Technology, Agricultural Technological Innovation, and Socialised Services for Sustainable Agriculture in China

Information and communication technologies have become a key driver of sustainable agricultural development, yet the pathways through which they exert this influence remain underexplored. This study investigates how information and communication technologies promote sustainable agricultural development by focusing on the mediating role of agricultural technological innovation and the moderating role of agricultural socialised services. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2013–2023), we employ fixed-effects models and a moderated mediation model for empirical analysis. The results show that information and communication technologies have a significant positive direct effect on sustainable agricultural development. Mechanism analysis further reveals that agricultural technological innovation plays a partial mediating role. Moreover, agricultural socialised services not only positively moderate the direct effect of information and communication technologies but also strengthen the first half of the mediating pathway: ‘Information and communication technologies → agricultural technological innovation → sustainable agricultural development’ linkage. Regional heterogeneity analysis indicates that the promotional effect of information and communication technologies follows a clear east–west gradient: it is strongest in the eastern regions, weaker in the central regions, and not significant in the western regions. Although constrained by the aggregation of provincial data and the use of proxy variables, this study provides a robust analytical framework for understanding the interplay among digital technologies, innovation, and service systems in sustainable agriculture.