Modelling the environmental suitability of dominant mangrove species in the Sundarbans using Maxent

Understanding the distribution of mangrove species is crucial for the long-term monitoring and conservation planning of mangrove ecosystems. In this regard, Species Distribution Models (SDMs), especially the Maximum Entropy method (Maxent), has been widely used to map out the geographic distribution of species. However, only a few studies have applied this approach to investigate mangrove species distribution in the Bangladeshi Sundarbans, part of which is designated as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. To address this, we employed Maxent species distribution model to evaluate the environmental suitability of six major mangrove species with the view of identifying the major factors that determine their geographical spread in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We selected a total of twelve environmental variables for final model development. Our findings indicated that the north-eastern Sundarbans boasted a high richness of species, whereas the south-western exhibited the lowest due to a likely increase in salinity. These two areas should be prioritized for further monitoring to better comprehend species composition and potential shifts therein in response to future changes in the climate. The species-richness and community map developed in this study can serve as a valuable resource for policymakers in establishing conservation and management zones for mangroves in the Bangladeshi Sundarbans.