System-Level Analysis and Management of Orbital Debris Using Empirical Dynamic Modeling

Orbital debris is a pressing problem that presents a danger to global space operations and a barrier to the continued development of the space economy and space infrastructure. As research regarding orbital debris continues, there is a need for tools to understand the system-level implications of orbital debris solutions. This research considers the orbital debris problem as a dynamic process. Based on dynamic system theories, time-series variables of the numbers of orbital debris objects, orbital objects, and object launches should be causally linked, which means that they share a common system attractor manifold. We propose a data-driven method based on complexity science to reconstruct a shadow attractor of the dynamic system using limited observable variables. The reconstructed shadow attractor helps us to understand the fundamental system dynamics of orbital debris and enables us to simulate the future of the orbital debris system based on changes to policy. These findings represent a significant advancement in our ability to understand the high-level impacts of space system policy with limited available data.