Evaluation System for Appropriateness of Operation Plan of Extra Trains Considering Passengers' Boundedly Rational Train Choices

To meet daily passenger demands in Japan, extra trains are operated each day on high-speed railways. The primary purpose of these additional operations is to alleviate excessive congestion on regular trains and meet passengers' expectations for transportation services. However, in some cases, the occupancy rates of extra trains remain low, and the expected redistribution of passengers away from regular trains does not occur. This phenomenon poses a challenge in formulating effective extra train operation plans. In this study, we assume that such biases in occupancy rates are caused by passengers' boundedly rational train choices. Hence, we develop a method to estimate the number of passengers on each train, using a train choice model that incorporates this assumption. The accuracy of the proposed estimation method is validated through simulation using historical data from a high-speed rail line in Japan. Furthermore, we develop an evaluation system to assess the appropriateness of extra train operation plans based on the proposed estimation method. This system enables quantitative assessment of various scenarios and provides valuable support for the formulation of effective extra train operation plans.