Navigating Paradoxes: United States– China Rivalry and Cooperation in Environmental Sustainability Through Multilateral Development Banks Projects in Southeast Asia

This study explores the role of geopolitical alignment in influencing the allocation of environmental sustainability projects by the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Southeast Asia, a region of critical geopolitical importance. Given the intensifying competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, the research examines whether countries aligned with either power or those employing hedging strategies receive preferential access to multilateral development banks funding. Using data from 2016 to 2023, χ 2 tests and Spearman’s rank correlation were applied to evaluate the relationship between geopolitical alignment and project funding distribution. The findings indicate no significant correlation between geopolitical positioning and the allocation of sustainability projects by either of the multilateral development banks. This suggests that, despite broader geopolitical tensions, both banks prioritise development objectives over political considerations, underscoring the potential for neutral cooperation in global environmental governance.