Progressive Damage Analysis and Structural Optimization of Composite Laminates under Probabilistic Uncertainty

ABSTRACT Accurate assessment of composite laminate strength and ultimate load‐bearing capacity is essential for engineering safety, yet structural performance involves a complex coupled process of degradation and damage evolution subject to multiple uncertainties arising from material properties, ply architecture, and loading conditions. This study develops an integrated structural optimization framework combining a novel progressive damage model with uncertainty propagation analysis. Using sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), the coupled degradation‐damage model quantifies the impact of uncertainties in material properties and ply architecture, while global sensitivity analysis identifies and ranks key uncertainty sources. The framework is applied to optimize the ultimate bearing capacity of laminates, with predictions validated through experiments and numerical simulations. The proposed method offers an effective technical approach for enhancing composite system reliability.