Advancing leopard conservation in the Western Cape, South Africa: a holistic landscape modelling approach

Abstract Context Habitat fragmentation poses a major threat to large carnivores globally, with leopards ( Panthera pardus ) experiencing severe range contractions and population declines. The Western Cape Province of South Africa presents a unique case where leopards persist within a highly fragmented, human-dominated landscape that overlaps two global biodiversity hotspots. Objectives This study assessed leopard distribution and connectivity across the Western Cape using a multi-data, multi-scale framework. Specifically, we examined how environmental and anthropogenic variables influence leopard space use and habitat suitability across multiple spatial scales and quantified landscape permeability to identify potential corridors. Methods We integrated province-wide questionnaire surveys, GPS-collar tracking data, and other verified presence records. Occupancy modelling, species distribution modelling, and circuit-theory analyses were used to evaluate habitat use, resource selection, and functional connectivity. Results First‑order (population‑level) occupancy modelling indicated widespread but spatially variable leopard occurrence, primarily constrained by extremely rugged terrain, while proximity to protected areas influenced detection probability. Second-order (home-range) MaxEnt modelling identified protected areas (60.20% contribution) as the primary driver of habitat suitability. Third-order (within-home-range) weighted resource-selection modelling showed that individuals selected rugged, low-elevation, vegetated areas with minimal human disturbance. Landscape permeability was generally low (mean = 0.31 ± 0.16 SD), with the Cape Fold Mountain Belt emerging as a key pathway for leopard movement. Conclusions Integrating diverse datasets across spatial scales is a powerful approach to understanding leopard ecology and informing conservation planning. Our findings highlight the critical importance of unprotected, multiuse landscapes for maintaining connectivity and long-term population viability. Conservation efforts should prioritise enhancing connectivity along mountain ranges and implementing coexistence-focused initiatives on private lands.