What motivates Irish farmers to participate in new afforestation schemes: Financial or environmental drivers?

Afforestation is the most significant land-based strategy for enhancing carbon sequestration and mitigating climate change globally. However, in many countries, including Ireland, planting targets remain unmet despite the availability of financial incentives. The latest Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform introduced Small-Scale Afforestation Measures (SSAMs) to encourage tree planting on Irish farms, but barriers and motivations for adoption remain poorly understood. Accordingly, this study examines both external factors (e.g. financial incentives) and intrinsic motives (e.g., beliefs, values, attitudes, and social norms) influencing the adoption of SSAMs, which is crucial for designing more effective and targeted afforestation policies. Using data from a nationally representative survey of 563 Irish farms, the extended Theory of Planned Behaviour was applied to distinguish the influence of different beliefs, subjective norm, and barriers. A Generalised Linear Model with Ordinal Regression was used to analyse farmers’ adoption intentions. Results showed over half of farmers were either ‘neutral’ or ‘unwilling’ to adopt SSAMs, while 38.9%, 32.0%, and 45.1% were ‘willing’ to adopt tree planting of ‘Any-kind’, under CAP Pillar I ‘Eco-scheme’, and CAP Pillar II ‘Agri-Environment-Climate Measures (AECMs)’, respectively. Most background factors were not significant to adoption, and while socio-psychological factors emerged as particularly significant. Economic beliefs shaped farmers’ attitudes toward AECM adoption, while environmental beliefs were key drivers for Eco-Scheme participation. Findings suggest that adoption can be improved by combining financial incentives with participatory training to engage influential peer groups. Addressing both economic concerns and environmental values is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of afforestation policies and increasing uptake.