Enhancing urban resilience through green infrastructure: NDVI-based assessment of Jakarta’s flood risk

Flooding is one of the most frequent natural disasters worldwide, and the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report indicates that rapid urbanization and climate change are intensifying flood risks. Although floods are not new phenomena, urbanization has significantly exacerbated their severity. Jakarta, a rapidly urbanizing coastal city, faces growing flood threats aggravated by uncontrolled development. While the government has introduced engineering and technological measures, these have been criticized as short-term solutions that fail to address fundamental risk factors. This study emphasizes the need for resilient urban planning that integrates non-structural measures such as land-use management and green space expansion. Focusing on Jakarta, it investigates the flood mitigation effects of increasing urban green areas using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a Flood Risk Index (FRI). Three NDVI-increase scenarios (10%, 50%, and 100%) were analyzed through an Extra Trees Regressor model, and Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) was applied to identify key green corridors. Results show that flood risk reduction varied by scenario, with larger NDVI increases producing stronger mitigation effects. The U-shaped peripheral green corridor exhibited the highest potential, underscoring the importance of strategic green expansion in flood-prone cities. To achieve Jakarta’s 2030 goal of securing 30% green coverage, qualitative improvements and systematic maintenance must accompany quantitative growth. These findings provide empirical and policy-oriented guidance for resilient urban planning that simultaneously enhances flood mitigation and climate adaptation.