Engineering Identity and College Outcomes: Predicting GPA and Retention Among Early-Career Engineering Students

This study examines engineering identity, sense of belonging, and career commitment as predictors of academic performance and persistence among early-career engineering majors. Students enrolled in introductory engineering courses at a four-year Hispanic-Serving Institution in the U.S. Southwest were surveyed, and their responses were later linked to institutional records to obtain semester grade point average (GPA) and next-semester reenrollment outcomes. Our analyses showed that engineering identity significantly predicted higher GPA and greater odds of reenrollment. Specifically, a one-unit increase in engineering identity corresponded to a 46% increase in the odds of retention to the following semester. Sense of belonging and career commitment were strongly correlated with identity but did not independently predict GPA or persistence, and career commitment did not mediate identity effects. Our findings emphasize identity as a key early predictor of achievement and retention in engineering, and highlight the importance of identity-supportive interventions, particularly for first-generation students, in improving performance and retention.