Evolving supply risks of raw materials in hydrogen production: Transitioning from fossil fuels to metals

The energy transition is driving hydrogen production from fossil-fuel-based routes to metal-intensive electrolyser technologies, shifting supply risks from fossil fuels to critical minerals. Using the GeoPolRisk approach, this study assesses geopolitical supply risks for fossil fuels and metals in five electrolyser types from the perspectives of Australia, China, the EU, Japan, and the USA. Results show that metals for electrolysers face risks up to 0.5, far exceeding those of fossil fuels (below 0.15). High risks are linked to niobium and rare earth elements in solid oxide electrolyser cells, platinum in proton exchange membrane electrolysers, and cobalt across technologies. National risk profiles vary, influenced by supplier choices. Large-scale clean hydrogen deployment will require more resilient supply chains. Mitigation strategies—such as mining investment, technological innovation, international cooperation, and diversification toward politically stable sources—could reduce long-term risks, mirroring historical fossil fuel market resilience.