Perception gaps in the British Parliament reveal a possible pathway to stronger climate policy action

Abstract Public support for many climate policies is often higher than elected representatives believe, and such misperceptions can influence how confidently they engage with climate issues. Understanding how these perception gaps arise within national institutions is important for effective climate policy and for democratic responsiveness. Here we examine how members of parliament in the United Kingdom perceive public support for climate policies. We conducted an online survey experiment with one hundred sitting members of parliament between December 2024 and January 2025, comparing their estimates of support for four climate policy proposals with nationally representative polling collected earlier in 2024. Members of parliament underestimated public support on average by 11 percentage points, including support when personal financial or practical costs were made explicit, and they overestimated political division between voter groups. Lower perceived support was associated with lower willingness to speak in favour of a pricing policy. Exposure to polling evidence was associated with limited and uncertain corrective effects. These results suggest a tractable barrier to climate action within parliamentary settings.