A failed insurrection? An institutional analysis of the creation of the European Union Social Convergence Framework

This article examines the creation of the European Union’s (EU) Social Convergence Framework (SCF), introduced in 2024 as part of reforms to the EU’s economic governance system. Building on debates about the “socialisation” of the European Semester, we analyse why the SCF succeeded where the previously proposed Social Imbalances Procedure (SIP) failed. Taking a historical institutionalist approach and drawing on theories of gradual institutional change, we argue that the SIP represented an insurrectionary strategy aimed at displacing existing rules but faced insurmountable legal and political veto points. In contrast, the SCF emerged through a subversive layering strategy, designed by technical actors within the EU institutions to integrate social monitoring into the Semester without challenging its core economic framework. Using policy documents, Council debates, and interviews with key stakeholders, we demonstrate how institutional constraints, actor strategies, and political compromises shaped the SCF’s design. We argue that, while the SCF increases visibility for social indicators and may strengthen social objectives within EU governance, its reliance on soft law limits transformative potential. We conclude that the SCF reflects incremental institutional change, offering modest opportunities for further socialisation of the European Semester.