A Geospatial Analysis of Illegal Dumpsites in Abuja, Nigeria

ABSTRACT This study advanced geospatial analysis of illegal dumpsites in Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Nigeria, to diagnose their spatial distribution patterns, identify statistically significant hotspots, assess compliance with environmental siting standards, and interpret findings through a spatial justice lens. A secondary analysis was performed on 36 georeferenced illegal dumpsites originally mapped by Mohammed et al. (2022). Nearest Neighbour Analysis (NNA), Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with an 800m bandwidth, 500m × 500m grid-based hotspot detection, and 1000m buffer analysis around residential areas and water bodies were applied using QGIS 3.44. NNA revealed strong clustering (Nearest Neighbour Index = 0.34, z-score = -8.42, p < 0.001). KDE identified three primary hotspots: the Apo-Durumi-Garki corridor (highest intensity), the Lugbe-Chika-Aleita axis, and the Utako-Jabi area. Grid analysis isolated five multi-site cells, including two cells containing three dumpsites each. Buffer analysis showed widespread violations: 87.2% of sites were located within 1000m of residential areas and 10.3% within 1000m of water bodies. Peri-urban districts (Apo/Gudu, Chika/Aleita, Lugbe) contained nearly 60% of all dumpsites, compared to minimal concentrations in planned high-income areas. The study concluded that illegal dumpsites in AMAC were not randomly distributed but formed statistically significant clusters reflecting systematic infrastructural exclusion and spatial injustice. Accordingly, we recommended: (1) a hotspot-first intervention targeting the five identified multi-site cells; (2) the establishment of legal transfer stations in Lugbe, Chika/Aleita, and Apo, sited at least 1000m from settlements; (3) equity-based service extension to underserved peri-urban districts; and (4) the institutionalization of geospatial hotspot monitoring to track service equity and intervention outcomes.