Evaluation of Driving Factors of <scp> <i>Triticum aestivum</i> </scp> (Wheat) Yield Change in Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain Under Climate Change

ABSTRACT As climate change intensifies and the demand for food increases, food security has become a focal point of research. The Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain (HHHP), a major production region for winter wheat in China, plays a crucial role in ensuring regional and national food security through its wheat yield. However, there was no systematic analysis of the driving factors of winter wheat yield change in the HHHP under climate change, in order to quantify the contributions of different factors to winter wheat yield change in HHHP. This study utilized the localized Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model to analyze the drivers of winter wheat yield change during historical (1981–2010) and future climate scenarios (2021–2050 and 2051–2080, under SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios). The results indicated that under future climate scenarios, drought during the wheat growth season in the HHHP was alleviated, but there was an intensifying trend during the flowering (F) and start of grain filling (SGF) stage, and heat also showed an increasing trend during the SGF stage. Nevertheless, drought led to a 26.09% reduction in winter wheat yield, which was significantly greater than the negative impact of heat. Without considering extreme weather events and assuming no changes in wheat varieties or field management practices, the impact of climate change on winter wheat yield showed a positive feedback, with an increase of 8.97%. Therefore, to ensure a steady increase in future winter wheat yield in the HHHP, more attention should be paid to preventing future drought occurrences, which could be managed through appropriate irrigation and the cultivation of drought‐resistant varieties, thus safeguarding food security in the HHHP.