Predictive modeling of Rhopalosiphum padi population dynamics in time and space: host effects on management

Abstract The determination of biological parameters and the spatiotemporal dynamics of insect pests is essential for calibrating simulation models that enable the prediction of population growth and the establishment of warning systems for management actions. In this context, the objective of this study was to quantify variations in biological parameters due to the host (wheat cultivar) and their impacts on the accuracy of the ABISM (Agent-Based Insect Simulation Model). Since the rates of biological processes vary depending on the host plant, life-history parameters were obtained for two wheat cultivars (cv. TBIO Toruk and cv. BRS Belajoia) and compared to those simulated by ABISM. The pre-reproductive period was shorter, and longevity and the number of R. padi nymphs produced were higher in cv. BRS Belajoia compared to cv. TBIO Toruk. Differences were found between observed and ABISM-simulated data, depending on the cultivar, for the variables longevity ( $$p = 0.004793$$ ) and total fecundity ( $$p = 0.04443$$ ). These differences were expressed in spatial dynamics, with a greater number of plants colonized by R. padi in cv. BRS Belajoia. Differences between cultivars may be associated with anatomical traits, given that cv. BRS Belajoia lacks trichomes, unlike cv. TBIO Toruk. Therefore, there was an effect of cultivar and ambient temperature, and discrepancies between observed and simulated data only for cv. BRS Belajoia. The differences between cultivars, as well as in relation to the model, indicate, for better model accuracy, the use of cultivar-specific parameters considering insect–plant interactions is required.