Practitioner disagreement over primeval forest management: Insights from a Policy Delphi process

Understanding how conservation practitioners conceptualize nature conservation and interventions is critical for the effective implementation of conservation policy. Divergent understanding of conservation priorities and goals, as well as rival rationales for interventions can either hinder or enhance decision-making processes. In this study, we examined differences in preferences and their justifications among conservation practitioners regarding interventions in the Białowieża Forest, one of Europe's best-preserved lowland temperate old-growth forests and an emblem of wildness, which has been the subject of recurring disputes and conflicts. Using the Policy Delphi technique, we identified areas of disagreement regarding various conservation interventions and explored the reasoning behind these differences. We found that disagreement among practitioners was most apparent in relation to interventions addressing national and local safety, recreational use of the area, and active conservation measures. These disagreements were rooted in two distinct foundations: clearly articulated and competing conservation preferences, and, alternatively, widespread uncertainty and ambiguity regarding the expected ecological outcomes of specific interventions. Notably, the scope of disagreement extended well beyond issues previously highlighted in public debates. Our findings demonstrate that structured deliberative approaches such as the Policy Delphi technique can support conservation decision-making in revealing and acknowledging differences in assumptions and preferences among policy actors. By providing anonymity and a non-confrontational setting, the process facilitates knowledge exchange and reduces power asymmetries among participants. We argue that acknowledging and understanding areas of disagreement among conservation practitioners is essential for fostering transparent and constructive debate, as well as for achieving ecologically sound and adaptive conservation practices.