The predictive validity of the Stalking Risk Profile in everyday practice

The Stalking Risk Profile (SRP) is a structured professional judgment guideline to help practitioners evaluate and respond to risks associated with stalking. Using a sample of 217 Australian adults referred to a community forensic mental health service, this study examined the predictive validity of SRP risk judgments made by assessing clinicians. Discrimination, classification, and prediction statistics were examined at 12-month intervals over a 4-year follow-up using police charges for stalking-related offending. Total scores were positively related to risk judgments. Moderate/high risk judgments generally showed good sensitivity, though weaker specificity. Risk judgments about stalking violence and recurrent stalking of the same victim showed moderate to strong discrimination and predictive benefits over the base rate of reoffending, with minor improvements over time. Judgments about stalking different victims or persistent stalking of the same victim were less effective, possibly due to methodological limitations of the prospective study design.