Gered maar onzeker: De verborgen schaduwzijde van tijdelijke werkloosheid

This PhD dissertation investigates the psychological consequences of Short-Time Work (STW) schemes. STW schemes are designed to avoid mass layoffs during crises. They allow organizations facing a temporary reduction in production or demand to suspend employment contracts while providing workers with unemployment benefits. STW schemes were widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic, with over one million workers affected in Belgium alone. Although the pandemic has ended, STW remains a structural policy in several European countries. Because it saves jobs in the short term, it is usually considered beneficial for workers. Yet, there could be a hidden dark side: recent empirical studies suggest that STW may signal threat to employment, with detrimental consequences for workers' well-being. Despite this recent research, much remains to be understood about the nature of this threat and the conditions that may foster it. The general aim of this PhD is to further explore the relationship between STW, insecurity about future employment and well-being. We first investigate the presumed long-term benefits of STW versus job loss. We then examine whether insecurity also concerns job quality (i.e., qualitative job insecurity, as opposed to quantitative job insecurity which relates to the loss of the job itself). Additionally, we look at whether insecurity can be mitigated by perceptions of being able to find another job (i.e., perceived employability). Finally, our approach is contextualized and consider boundary conditions (i.e., severity of the crisis, sector, and worker's position within the organization). We address our aim and objectives in three studies, tied together by Lazarus and Folkman's transactional model of stress. Study 1 compares well-being one-year post-pandemic among workers who experienced job loss, STW, or stable employment. Results point to a lesser evil policy: workers on STW report higher well-being than those who lost their jobs, as they feel more in control. However, compared to stable employment, STW may still introduce insecurity, when few people around are affected by the crisis. Study 2 hypothesizes and shows a positive relationship between STW and qualitative job insecurity, again with negative implications for well-being. This relationship is stronger in sectors usually less affected and among managers, likely because STW was more disruptive for them. Study 3 relies on a latent transition analysis to examine how job insecurity and perceived employability may combine over time. STW predicts profiles combining both higher job insecurity and lower perceived employability, challenging the assumption that employability may easily buffer insecurity. We discuss implications for various stakeholders, including employers, policy-makers, and trade unions.