A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Surface Temperature Trends in Türkiye’s Biodiversity Hotspot: The Case of Artvin (2000–2024)

Abstract This study aims to investigate changes in land surface temperature (LST) over the period 2000–2024 in Artvin Province, one of Türkiye’s regions with the highest biodiversity. Monthly and seasonal maximum, minimum, and mean LST values were examined using MODIS MOD11C3 satellite data. There is a significant increase in minimum LST values, particularly in winter and spring, reflected in nighttime measurements (Z > 1.96, p < 0.05). The finding shows that nighttime temperatures increase more rapidly than daytime temperatures during cold seasons, leading to asymmetric warming that affects snow cover dynamics, water resources, and mountain ecosystems. The study demonstrates that asymmetric warming patterns lead to earlier spring snowmelt and reduced summer water supply for snow-fed rivers, including the Çoruh River. The highland areas experienced nighttime minimum LST increases of 0.07 °C per year, posing a direct threat to the 386 endemic plant species in the region, as 55 of those species are already endangered. On the other hand, a decreasing trend was observed in daytime maximum and mean temperatures in July in some inland districts. While a consistent warming trend persists throughout the year in coastal areas, stable or cooling trends have been identified in high-mountain areas. This suggests that the Black Sea’s maritime influence exacerbates warming in coastal areas, while topography and forest cover create a cooling effect at higher elevations.