Stroke burden attributable to high body mass index in China from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2036 based on global burden of disease data

The disease burden of stroke due to high body mass index (BMI) in China is unknown. This study investigated the burden from 1990 to 2021 and modeled projections for the next 15 years (2021-2036). Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study were analyzed using join-point regression to determine trends in stroke burden attributable to high BMI in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the burden from 2022 to 2036. The burden of stroke attributable to high BMI has been increasing in China since 1990, whereas the global trend shows a divergent trajectory. The burden associated with stroke varies among different stroke subtypes, gender, and age groups. In China, stroke mortality attributable to high BMI was projected to increase from 3.47 per 100,000 in 2021 to 4.80 per 100,000 in 2036. China's public health authorities should focus on high-risk groups and ensure the implementation of a comprehensive "prevention-treatment-rehabilitation" intervention to reverse this trend.