Public health and economic implications of hypertension in the context of Indonesia's double burden of malnutrition

This study analyzes trends and projects future trajectories of key maternal and child nutrition indicators in Indonesia toward the 2030 Global Nutrition Targets, explicitly examining their implications for the nation's growing hypertension burden. Using time-series data (2000-2023) from the World Bank, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to forecast the prevalence of stunting, anemia in women, low birth weight, and childhood overweight through 2030. Projections indicate Indonesia is on track to meet the stunting target (18.0% by 2030) and control childhood overweight (3.4%). However, targets for anemia in women (25.2%) and low birth weight (9.5%) are projected to be missed. Strong positive correlations were found among stunting, anemia, and low birth weight, while childhood overweight correlated inversely with these indicators. The analysis reveals a critical public health insight: the off-track maternal and birth nutrition indicators represent a significant, modifiable risk factor for future hypertension at the population level. Deficits in early life nutrition are strongly linked, through developmental origins pathways, to an increased risk of adult cardiometabolic disease. Therefore, accelerating progress on these overlooked indicators is not only a nutritional imperative but a foundational strategy for primary prevention of hypertension. Achieving sustainable health gains requires life-course policies that integrate maternal-child nutrition with non-communicable disease prevention agendas.