Nested subnational material flow accounting for circular economy assessment

Abstract Subnational entities such as states and provinces differ markedly in their material use, waste generation, and emissions due to variations in resource endowments, industrial structures, and living standards. These differences create distinct sustainability challenges that require regionally tailored policy responses. Yet, the development of comprehensive subnational datasets and indicators, including circular-economy metrics, has been constrained by methodological and data limitations. This study develops economy-wide material flow accounts for Australia’s States and Territories that are fully compatible with its national accounts. We advance approaches to integrate subnational accounts within national frameworks and propose a set of metrics and indicators that capture the material footprint, material productivity, and circularity rate at the jurisdictional scale. Results show increasing structural divergence, with mineral resource-rich jurisdictions such as Western Australia exhibiting decreasing circularity rates, stagnating material productivity and increasing per-capita domestic material consumption. In contrast, population-dense jurisdictions such as New South Wales and Victoria exhibit increasing circularity and material productivity and declining per-capita domestic material consumption. These differentiated patterns and trends underscore the need for tailored circular economy-oriented policy strategies that account for differences in subnational geographic and economic structures.