A Multi-Objective Framework for Cost and Carbon-Optimal Vehicle Electrification Under Grid Constraints

Electrification of road transport is widely promoted as a pathway to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; however, its effectiveness depends critically on electricity carbon intensity, renewable energy share, charging behavior, and grid capacity constraints. This study develops a multi-objective analytical and optimization framework to evaluate cost and carbon-optimal electric vehicles electrification by jointly minimizing system cost and carbon emissions under coupled transport–energy system conditions. A closed form cut-off condition is derived to determine the minimum renewable electricity share required for electric vehicles to achieve lower emissions than internal combustion engine vehicles, and the formulation is extended to mixed fleets including battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The framework integrates fleet-level emissions, electricity demand, renewable capacity limits, charging losses, carbon taxation, and peak charging constraints to define a feasible electrification region. Feasibility mapping, Monte Carlo exploration, and evolutionary multi-objective optimization are employed to characterize trade-offs between CO2 emission and total system cost, and to identify Pareto-optimal and knee point solutions. The results show that electrification without sufficient renewable support or coordinated charging can increase emissions and violate grid limits, whereas integrated planning enables significant emission reduction within economically viable regions. These findings provide a quantitative and decision-oriented basis for cut-off-informed and grid-aware electrification planning in carbon-constrained power systems.