The global range of the invasive weed <i>Plantago virginiana</i> is predicted to expand under climate change

Abstract Biological invasions and climate change represent considerable threats to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services worldwide. Understanding and predicting the changes in the climatic niches of alien plants is a crucial factor in assessing the risks of biological invasions under future climate change conditions. Plantago virginica L. (Plantaginaceae family) is an invasive agricultural weed found in many countries, but its global climate niche dynamics remain unknown. We used 2,615 occurrence points and 9 refined climate variables to develop a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the distribution of P. virginica. Utilizing predicted future climate data, the range shifts of P. virginica were forecasted for two distinct periods (2050 and 2070) under two climate change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The findings suggested that the current potential distribution of P. virginica is mainly limited to eastern South America, eastern Asia, the northern Mediterranean coast, and the eastern Australian coast. The primary climatic variables influencing the potential distribution of P. virginica were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), isothermality (Bio3), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5). Due to climate change, the potential distribution of P. virginica will likely expand overall, leading to the emergence of new suitable habitats in regions such as central South America, central Europe, and central Asia. Our results help predict dynamic changes in the distribution of P. virginica under climate change and thus aid in formulating strategies to reduce the risks and impacts of biological invasions.