Projecting Climate-Induced Shifts in the Richness and Spatial Distribution of Invasive Alien Plants Across China Under Alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Climate change is profoundly altering species’ geographical distributions, with particularly pronounced effects on the richness patterns of invasive alien plants. As China represents a global hotspot for biological invasions, accurately projecting these shifts is imperative for formulating proactive and effective management strategies. This study integrated occurrence records for 321 invasive plant species with seven key environmental predictors within a MaxEnt modeling framework, supplemented by ArcGIS v10.8 spatial analysis, to simulate potential species richness distributions under current climatic conditions and three future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The optimized models exhibited strong predictive performance (mean AUC = 0.972 ± 0.037; mean TSS = 0.877 ± 0.115), with 92.1% of species achieving AUC > 0.9. Annual precipitation metrics emerged as the predominant drivers, with precipitation of the driest month (Bio14, 37.6%), annual precipitation (Bio12, 15.6%), and minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6, 13.8%) exerting the strongest influence on species distributions. Contemporary invasive plant richness hotspots are concentrated in southern and southwestern China. Under future climate scenarios, substantial range shifts are anticipated: suitable habitats are projected to expand significantly for 58 species (a mean change of +145.8%), while contracting for 24 species (a mean change of −50.4%). Notably, the centroid of maximum species richness is projected to undergo a pronounced north-northwestward displacement, migrating from its current location in Xiangcheng District, Hubei Province, to Lushi County, Henan Province, by the 2090s under the SSP585 scenario. This trajectory coincides with a marked expansion of areas characterized by medium and high species richness, a trend that is particularly accentuated under the high-emission pathway. In conclusion, this study provides a robust, spatially explicit assessment of the future dynamics of invasive plant richness in China, highlighting a significant north-northwestward redistribution under climate change. These findings establish a critical scientific baseline for prioritizing regional monitoring efforts and implementing preemptive control measures in areas facing heightened invasion risk.