The Modal QRA—Enabling Real-Time Risk Calculations

Industry has for a long time aspired to a dynamic QRA (quantitative risk analysis), but due to the complexity of the traditional scenario-based risk analysis, it has not been practicably possible to perform fast enough analyses for real-time risk updates. As an analogy, if the speedometer had required several hours to calculate the speed of a car, it would never have become the valuable and mandatory risk management tool it is for all car drivers today. A completely new approach to QRAs has now rendered real-time risk updates a reality for industry, both for onshore plants and for offshore facilities. The new modal risk analysis represents a technical solution offering real-time QRA calculations, even for the largest and most complex facilities. A pilot version of the modal QRA has been developed and tested, and the modal risk updates are seen to be both real-time and sufficiently accurate for expedient risk-based decision-making. The new modal QRA can disruptively change the way we understand and manage the risk of our facilities.