Early Prediction of Sepsis-Related Coagulopathy: A Comparative Evaluation of Clinical Scoring Systems in the Emergency Department

Background: Early recognition of sepsis-related coagulation derangements may support timely risk stratification in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected infection. Evidence comparing coagulation-oriented scores in unselected “suspected sepsis” populations remains limited, particularly for predicting progression to sepsis, overt thrombotic/hemorrhagic events, and mortality. Methods: We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study including consecutive ED patients evaluated for sepsis, suspected sepsis, or infection (January 2016–December 2024). Patients with overt disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) at admission were excluded. The Sepsis-Induced Coagulopathy (SIC), Japanese Association for Acute Medicine DIC (JAAM-DIC), International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) score, and Endothelial Activation and Stress Index (EASIX; and log2-EASIX) were calculated at admission. Outcomes were progression to confirmed sepsis (Sepsis-3), symptomatic coagulopathy (thrombotic and/or hemorrhagic events), and in-hospital mortality. Discrimination was assessed by ROC analysis (AUC with 95% CI) and clinical utility by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Among 11.274 patients without overt DIC, all scores showed moderate discrimination for mortality and sepsis progression. SIC performed best for in-hospital mortality (AUC 0.701, 95% CI 0.692–0.710) and for progression to confirmed sepsis (AUC 0.672, 95% CI 0.663–0.681). Prediction of overt thrombotic/hemorrhagic complications was poor across scores; ISTH yielded the highest (yet modest) AUCs for thrombotic events (0.614, 95% CI 0.604–0.623), hemorrhagic events (0.545, 95% CI 0.535–0.554), and combined coagulopathy (0.605, 95% CI 0.596–0.614). DCA suggested net benefit at low-to-intermediate threshold probabilities, particularly for SIC (and JAAM2) in early decision ranges. In the confirmed sepsis subgroup, discrimination attenuated overall; for combined coagulopathy, SIC showed the highest AUC (0.558, 95% CI 0.518–0.597). Conclusions: In ED patients with suspected sepsis and no overt DIC at presentation, SIC provides the strongest performance for early prognostic stratification (mortality and sepsis progression), whereas none of the evaluated scores reliably predict clinically overt thrombotic or hemorrhagic complications.