A dynamic monitoring framework for sustainable aviation fuels technology frontiers

The aviation industry faces growing pressure to cut emissions, with SAF as a key solution. This study proposes a reusable foresight framework integrating patent analysis, main path analysis, and NLP. Results show: (i) SAF has strong innovation potential, with the US and China as core hubs. (ii) HEFA is the best short-term choice, while ATJ and FT offer greater long-term potential. (iii) Eight core technology clusters are identified: biomass to diesel, regulation of bio-derived paraffin properties, fuel production from vegetable/animal fats and oils, improved cold flow properties, catalyst optimization, bio-renewable fuel blends, bio-derived fuel components, and hydrogenation catalyst recovery. (iv) Four candidate disruptive technologies are identified: diversified feedstock development, feedstock collection/processing, catalytic upgrading, and product purification/separation. (v) Cross-disciplinary technologies like AI, bio-enzymatic catalysis, and coupled integration are common breakthrough directions. This framework supports technology investment, policy making, and R&D prioritization for global aviation decarbonization.