A Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for Electric Powertrain Systems of New Energy Vehicles Based on Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA)

In response to the frequent safety incidents associated with the core electrical systems (i.e., traction battery, charging system, and drive motor) of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the lack of forward-looking quantitative risk assessment methods in existing detection and diagnostic technologies, this study introduces the Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) methodology into the field of NEV safety. Unlike qualitative methods (e.g., FMEA, FTA) or purely data-driven diagnosis, this work establishes a tailored semi-quantitative LOPA framework that defines scenario-specific independent protection layer (IPL) identification criteria and probability of failure on demand (PFD) assignment rules for NEV applications. Typical risk scenarios, including battery thermal runaway, electrical faults in charging systems, overheating of drive motors, and battery internal short circuits caused by mechanical abuse, are systematically analyzed in terms of their failure mechanisms and evolution processes. A tailored quantitative risk assessment framework is established and applied to conduct full-process risk evaluations for the four scenarios. The results indicate that, under the synergistic effect of multiple protection layers—including inherently safe design, basic process control systems, safety instrumented systems, and physical protection measures—the accident consequence frequencies of all scenarios are significantly lower than the tolerable risk thresholds. This verifies the applicability and effectiveness of the LOPA method in NEV safety analysis. The proposed quantitative framework provides a scientific basis for safety design optimization, identification of critical protective elements, and operation and maintenance strategy formulation throughout the lifecycle of NEVs. Furthermore, the limitations of data portability from process industries are discussed, and sensitivity analyses are conducted to confirm the robustness of the conclusions.