Assessing Multidimensional Risks of Just Transition in China’s Coal-Producing Regions: Evidence from Shanxi Province

Systematic assessments of the multidimensional risks of a just transition in major coal-producing regions under China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets are essential to understanding the transition’s complexity, anticipating systemic crises, and designing effective policy interventions. Such assessments also provide critical scientific support for a smooth transition in similar regions. This study uses Shanxi Province, China’s largest coal producer, which contributes approximately one-quarter of the nation’s coal output and 59.85% of the nation’s fiscal revenue, as a case study. A multidimensional analytical framework was developed and multiple methods, including scenario simulation and factor analysis, were employed for a quantitative evaluation of the risk dynamics from 2025 to 2060. The results show that Shanxi’s just transition faces significant multidimensional risks: (1) economic and fiscal risks, with projected fiscal gaps exceeding 650 billion yuanby 2060; (2) severe employment and social stability risks, with cumulative job losses of 43.02% by 2060; (3) ecological resilience risks, with water and land resource losses exacerbating environmental damage; and (4) regional collaborative governance challenges, heightened by arduous coal supply guarantee tasks, low labor productivity in the coal sector, and divergent provincial transition policies. These risks interact and reinforce one another, forming a complex systemic risk that requires early intervention. This study refines the risk assessment framework for just transition, providing valuable decision-making support for major coal-producing regions.